Risk assessment for new introductions

Risk assessment based on predictive models focuses on first time introductions to a given region.  Executive Order 13112 mandates that risk assessment methodology be employed for first time introductions prior to their entry into the United States.  Predictive risk assessment models are in the developmental stage and not yet effective in predicting possible impacts of a species in a given area.  The predictive models evaluate: reproductive characteristics both sexual and asexual; climate matching and adaptive traits from native ranges; presence and activity from other known areas of introduction; and the potential degree of harm caused from introduction.  Currently there are no broadly accepted scientific reliable procedures for identifying the invasive potential of plants in new geographic areas.  Work on developing scientifically reliable methodology continues.  Two examples of predictive models are discussed in the provided publications.

Models for Predicting the Risk of Naturalization of Non-native Woody Plants in Iowa. M.P. Widrlechner, J.P. Thompson, J. Iles, and P.M. Dixon
Journal of Environmental Horticulture 22(1):23-31 March 2004

Predicting Invasion of Woody Plants Introduced into North America.
S. H. Reichard and C.W. Hamilton Conservation Biology 11:193-203